WHEN YOU MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE – AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  Politics is a most unforgiving sport.   You may be allowed one mistake.  But make it again and the customers start to leave.

I have great respect for Rudy Giuliani.  He was a fine mayor of New York who did the one great thing needed to save the city – he took on serious crime and largely defeated it, showing that it could be done.

But Rudy made a mess of his presidential run in 2008, getting into the race much too late and never connecting with voters, despite his legendary reputation as the man who led New York through 9-11.  Now he seems to be making the same mistake.  From The Politico:

After spending the day in New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani says he has settled on a timeframe for making up his mind about entering the 2012 race.

Late summer “seems like a natural period of time,” the former New York City mayor said in an interview with POLITICO from New Hampshire. “I think during the summer people don’t pay as much attention.”

No, no, no, that's much too late.  If Rudy wants to run, he's got to get in within the next month, and start introducing himself once more to the American people.  His name doesn't have the impact it once did.  His contributions are a vague memory.  If he is to have any chance, he has to campaign long and hard.  This is bad strategy again.

“I have the advantage of very high name-recognition,” he added, explaining his decision to wait.

Rudy, your name recognition was higher in 2008.  Look at the good it did you.

Waiting until Labor Day would also Giuliani time to see how the field shakes out, including the effect from the heavily-watched Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, generally seen as the first major test of organizational strength.

Despite being the national frontrunner and leading fundraiser of 2008, Giuliani placed fourth in the 2008 New Hampshire primary. Looking back, he said he regretted not doing the right type of retail politicking the last time around, but argued that the “Live Free or Die” state — where independents are the largest group of voters and can cast ballots in party primaries — is a natural fit for him.

Then why did he place fourth?  He's not thinking presidential.  He's thinking mayoral.

I think Rudy is once again underestimating the challenge.  He seemed stunned when he did so poorly in 2008, in part because of a weak campaign, and in part because his personality often seemed more suited to local, rather than national office.

As Yogi Berra so eloquently put it, it's déjà vu all over again. 

June 3, 2011